Apple Is Doomed.
Just kidding. Apple is on fire… right? I mean, they have revolutionized the mobile web browsing industry. They’re the coolest kid in school and legions of humans have left their preferred mobile carrier, sometimes at great expense, just to be able to use Apple devices. They’re the 800 pound guerilla in the space and no one can touch them.
Except for one thing. Apple is too cool to get along with everyone. You play by their rules or you don’t play at all. Even Adobe, which has historically been the #1 driver of Mac sales thanks to its suite of graphics and desktop publishing tools, has been cut out of the mix.
Ok, fine. But that doesn’t mean Apple is “doomed,” right?
Sort of.
Apple is not doomed to implode or die a miserable death in the immediate future. It is doomed to repeat the past. And this time, it’s Google that will eat their lunch.
Yesterday, Google announced the release of their latest version of Android, Froyo, the open-source alternative to Apple’s iPhone. Of all of the things it does well, it does one thing the best: It integrates with web applications seamlessly, giving WEB developers (i.e. not “iPhone application developers”) the ability to access the camera, accelerometer, GPS and other built-in features of any phone running the operating system. It even runs Flash. In other words, there will be no need to submit an application to an app store. Anyone can build anything, post it on the web, and be open for business. Sounds a lot like what happened to AOL back in the day, doesn’t it? AOL was so sure that their brand was more powerful than whatever this whole “Internet” thing was, they ignored customer demand and opened the door to Netscape, who focussed exclusively on the Internet as their playground. Not only was there surprising adoption from AOL’s customers, they ended up preferring it to AOL’s closed environment. AOL was relegated to an amateur email delivery service and ended up posting the biggest quarterly losses in history as of 2003.
Here’s why it matters. Google is building for the mobile web. Apple is building for the iPhone and iPad devices. Both with survive for a very long time for the same reason that Macintosh computers are still around after all of these years. They have their place. But when it comes to Apple’s percentage of the mobile device market, Google will continue to make gains, absorbing both Blackberry and Microsoft customers while they’re at it, and Apple will remain a niche. A very cool, very expensive, really beautiful, niche. Apple will continue to convince the world that it needs the kinds of experiences only they can provide, only to be out-sold by competitors that appeal to a broader range of customers.
Here are the facts:
- Android is now available on 60 devices
- 100,000 units are sold every day, and climbing
- It is available through 59 carriers, including AT&T
- Its browser is 2x faster than the iPad’s
- As of today, it is responsible for more web traffic than the iPhone and iPad combined.
So what? Who cares?
Great questions. The point I am trying to make here is that Apple is great, Apple is innovative and Apple has a place in the market, but its dominance is a myth. It is creating demand that other companies are taking advantage of. So whether you’re a developer, a brand manager or a technology consultant, think twice about building exclusively for the iPhone and set your sights on sophisticated mobile versions of your websites. Thank Steve Jobs for ushering in the new era, and get over the hype.
To watch the complete announcement and view some extraordinary examples of Android at work, check out the videos below:
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I’ll also be interested to see how “Google TV” moves in on Apple TV.
There’s so much movement and change right now, truly an exciting time
Agreed. And then there’s Google Docs, which is beating the crap out of Microsoft, Chrome, which is now displacing Firefox and Buzz, which is… oh wait. Buzz blows. Never mind.
Can I get off this train?
I’m afraid not, buddy. Once they’ve got their hooks in you, you’re finished. (Kidding, of course. This blog was written on a Mac and I own an iPhone. My next purchase though will be Droid all the way.)
This makes me even more excited about the HTC Droid Incredible I have on order (back order) for delivery in early June. All this time I have been waiting and hoping for an iPhone for Verizon, but it’s starting to look as if this is what has truly been worth waiting for.
I still want a MacBook Pro, though. Vista blows!
You and me both! Although I’m seriously considering the Evo 4G – World’s first 4G phone and standard wireless hotspot. http://phandroid.com/htc-evo-4g/
I do like my MacBook Pro, though I run Windows 7 on it as well. Huge improvement from Vista, IMO.
drinking the Google kool aid, I see.
I like the part about “repeating the past” that was cute. but in my mind it goes like this: Google hires an assload of microsoft employees creates a “good enough” rip-off of the iphone os. and then gives the os away for free to grab market share. Sounds like history repeating itself, only google is playing miscosofts role.
The key difference is that microsoft was a tiny company when they did it. and it took years to happen. Google is a bohemoth. it’s taken far less time to do. So once google grabs the majority share and apple becomes a niche player, do you really think it will be good for competition?
what consumers really need is two strong, healthy, innovative companies. if you don’t agree, you’re an idiot.
Thank you for your thoughts, Ed. “You’re an idiot” comments don’t usually hang around here long, but in this case, you’re right. Competition is almost always a good thing for consumers. Let’s not go pretending that Apple isn’t a behemoth though, mmmkay? Their market cap is expected to pass Microsoft’s within a matter of months. This post was intended to shake a little sense into developers, brand managers and technology consultants that may be under the impression that the mobile universe revolves around Apple, when in fact, they are just one of the players in the game.
Hey Pinky,
Yeah sorry about that one, I didn’t mean it in the *you are an idiot* way, it more like the royal “you”. and “idiot” was more like a sunday cartoons character saying “eeee-deee-oooot”. didn’t go over well. thanks for not over reacting. my bad.
Right, Apple is not a bit player. but in the scenario Google is vociferously and prematurely asking developers to believe in, yes, Apple is a bit player.
My criticism remains, Google is the new Microsoft. Say what you want about Apple. They have the customer’s best interest in mind. Google do not. never have and never will. Google has one thing they are interested in. Market share. This never leads to a good end-user experience.
If devs think it’s hard to develop for Google now, imagine what it will be like when they have 5 different flavors of Android point releases running on hundreds of different devices. Despite what you and your readers are perceiving, Apple’s development platform will ultimately be a lot more dev friendly. Just ask the guys dipping into the VP8 spec. garbage.
And lastly, I think a lot of people are taking for granted just how far Apple has pushed mobile. If it weren’t for Apple, we’d all still be lining up for the latest version of Motorola Razrs or something. Yeah, Google would possibly be showing concept videos of Android, but there’d be no fire. Fire is a good thing.
There’s been a long history of consultants predicting Apple’s death, don’t fall for it.
Pinky, amazing blog… I couldn’t agree more. I’m working in mobile now, for a company that creates apps for iPhone, Android & Rim. Apple’s approval process, though better, remains an annoying part of production.
All of the device manufacturers are showing some pretty amazing Android powered devices for 2011. HTC won’t be the only one with really compelling Android handsets. Next year will be pivotal in the Smartphone market.
I called it last December, the iphone is on the verge of being outsold. The only option now is for Apple to drop this nonsensical carrier exclusivity,